There has been talk of the simmering dispute between Uganda and Rwanda degenerating into open war. Indeed a few commentators have suggested that this might be inevitable.
I think Uganda should avoid an open war with Rwanda. There are those who think that because Uganda is economically and militarily superior to Rwanda, it would win such a war.
And presuming that the ‘upstart’ needs to be taught a lesson once and for all is dangerously naive and will only lead us to collective grief.
War is deadly affair and who ‘wins’ is often determined by factors that are not obvious. I will offer three: Resolve, logistics and intelligence. The more resolute side stands a good chance of winning, even against a much more powerful adversary.
The Vietnamese leader Ho Chi Minh warned the Americans thus: “You will kill 10 of us for every one of you we kill, but even against those odds, we will win and you will lose. He was later proved right. On logistics, Napoleon famously said: “An army marches on its stomach.” It needs food. And, these days, diesel, petrol, aviation gas. And mechanics to repair equipment.
How shall we fight a war where we can’t be sure that the tanks are properly fueled?
On intelligence, the army that knows its adversaries intentions best is the more likely to win. The army that can best deceive the enemy can win. Did I read social media cheekily posting suggesting that the most sought after girls in Kampala are Rwandans? I rest my case.